Category: Uncategorized

  • “NATO, Apocalypse, and the Russo-Ukrainian War”

    As the Russo-Ukraine War trudges along with no end in sight, fear flourishes, frustration grows, and rumors proliferate. Among the most recent rumors in the “peace camp” is that NATO is planning to declare war on Russia. Insinuating that nothing can be done, the die has apparently been cast. Even were this the case, however, progressives should still consider the implications and possible responses to a scenario of this magnitude. To insist dogmatically that NATO is the imperialist aggressor, and the primary obstacle to peace, only confuses matters further. Never say never, but claiming that NATO is planning to declare war on Russia is outlandish and irresponsible. It shifts the discussion from the here and now, when a war of attrition is taking place, to the indeterminate future when a nuclear assault will supposedly take place.

    Despairing over some apocalyptic decision by NATO in an unforeseeable future leads nowhere. Better to begin formulating the response to an ongoing proxy war in which the West is saying to Ukraine””let you and him fight!” Such a policy does not come cheap. The American Congress has just passed a new military budget of $84 billion, part of which will supplement the $54 billion already spent on aid for Ukraine. If anything would benefit NATO and the United States, however, then it is this ongoing war of attrition. Russia is being weakened by the day, and its mismanagement of economic and military resources has made an attack on the Baltic states ever less likely.

    But the question remains: Is the Western public willing to “stay the course”? In the United States, a crucial election will take place in November 2022, and most polls show that Ukraine is not of primary interest to voters. Is President Joe Biden ready to gamble that the polls are mistaken? He knows that Americans are most concerned with rising inflation, gas prices, the soaring cost of groceries, and his domestic spending plan. England is experiencing even worse inflation, and the ouster of Prime Minister Boris Johnson makes it unlikely that any new regime will support such a drastic change in dealing with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. As for France, its president, Emmanuel Macron, leads the moderate of left wing of the European community, which has (unsuccessfully) called for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Italy initially provided military support for Ukraine, but public opinion is now split over the war, and Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s coalition has collapsed. Meanwhile, Germany has been seriously impacted by the sanctions on Russian oil and gas; it would also be a mistake to underestimate its post-World War II pacifist tradition.

    Members of NATO are willing to spend on Ukraine, but not put troops on the ground, or launch a s nuclear war. The only international anti-Russian initiative on the table, so far, is a global plan commitment to lower the price of oil, and thus lessen Russian revenues. From the standpoint of Russia, however, war enabled Putin to deflect attention from economic problems, rampant corruption, and mismanagement. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been used by its president to strengthen solidarity. An intense propaganda campaign has been launched by Putin that depicts Russia as the victim of imperialist aggression by NATO, blocked in its attempts to retake lost territories, and leaves him to ask “why we need this world if we do not occupy a worthy place within it?”

    These words are ominous. Perhaps it is not NATO that will declare war on Russia, but Russia that will initiate a nuclear attack against Ukraine. Undertaken with conventional weapons, Russia’s invasion has been a disaster by any standard. The United States lost 54,000 soldiers in its ill-fated eight-year genocidal adventure in Vietnam whereas, in five months, Russia has already lost 15,000 of its military personnel at a minimum. Putin may not settle for victory through a slow war of attrition, especially if he believes that NATO will not engage in a nuclear counterattack and that the United States will remain content with support for Ukraine’s precision bombing, drone attacks, and fighting in the trenches. Ongoing support for Ukraine with ever more powerful weapons will produce a response in kind from Russia and thus create an escalating cycle of violence, which might make Putin think that a nuclear strike should be undertaken.

    For the Western alliance to take pre-emptive action, and launch its own nuclear strike, can only prove calamitous; it would dwarf the devastation produced by the United States dropping an atomic bomb on Hiroshima in 1945. Neither NATO nor the United States is ready to ignite an apocalypse and begin a nuclear war with Russia. Most likely, it is Putin who will resort to nukes or biological warfare. Simply bewailing the threat of either side sparking an apocalypse, however, is moralism disguised as politics. The more pacifist critics of the war would be far better served by articulating the preconditions and necessary compromises for peace negotiations.

    The International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue (www.icdd.info), which I co-direct with Eric Gozlan, has sought to develop such an agenda.* That endeavor is taking place in association with the European Center for Democracy and Development and the various non-governmental organizations participating in the National Platform for Reconciliation and Unity in Ukraine.*** Our proposals are honest attempts to engage the crisis in a realistic manner and ,hopefully, contribute to the politics of peace.

    Stephen Eric Bronner is Co-Director of the International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue and Board of Governors Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political science at Rutgers University. Among his recent books is The Sovereign (Routledge).

    “NATO, Apocalypse, and the Russo-Ukrainian War” in OpEdNews (8/1/2022)

  • “The Better Part of Valor: Peace in Ukraine”

    Not discretion, but clarity is the better part of valor. Ukraine has courageously resisted the imperialist assault on its sovereignty by Russia whose most important war aims reach back to Peter the Great. Russia wants access to warm-water ports, and buffers against invasion to its West and North. Whatever the successes of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, however, these aims have all been tainted in one way or another.

    Russia is saddled with enormous cost over-runs, countless impactful sanctions, domestic unrest, enormous losses of military hardware, and estimates of fallen servicemen that run as high as 38,000. Exports of natural gas, and transnational pipelines, once provided Russia its border security with Europe, but that is long gone. The global community identifies with the plight of Ukraine; Russia stands accused of horrible war crimes; Poland and other Eastern European states fear its ambitions; and, most dramatically, Finland and Sweden now wish to join NATO, which President Joseph Biden has almost single-handedly raised from the dead.

    The Ukrainian undertaking has resulted in much that President Vladimir Putin wanted to avoid – and perhaps he is now willing to strike a deal. For all that, however, things are not that bad for him. Dissent is being crushed at home and Russian citizens are adapting to the shortages and the sanctions. The Donbass is ready to fall. Major Ukrainian cities are being encircled. Russia now controls coveted warm-water ports such as Mariupol, Odessa, and Kherson; it has secured a land corridor that connects Russia’s border with Crimea; and Putin reigns over the Black Sea.

    Ukraine is on the defensive. Russia is advancing on its targets slowly but surely. Mariupol and Bucha have experienced mass executions, systematic rape, and the torture of civilians. Shelters and evacuation routes have been bombed. Deportations have taken place. Starvation is setting in, and Ukraine’s infrastructure has been demolished. Health services are unavailable; homelessness is rampant; and capital has fled the country. Moreover, the $1 trillion in Western military aid will turn what remains of a civilized nation into a military camp. Ukraine has already experienced enough suffering. There is much more in store if Russia employs increasingly lethal missiles, biological warfare, and nuclear arms.

    None of this can be ruled out, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can spill over into other nations at any time. The reality is that Western aid is reaching its limits. Citizens of NATO countries are already grumbling about rising gas prices, growing food shortages, and inflation sparked by the war. Ukrainian sovereignty now rests on rubble.

    “Take Back and Strengthen” is the new slogan, and Russia will surely keep its sights set on Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Putin still dreams of re-establishing the Soviet Empire. It is impossible to predict the future. Nevertheless, it would defy logic for Russia to invade any of these nations, at least while licking its wounds from the losses suffered in Ukraine.

    In spite of media chatter about “appeasement,” however, it might be more worthwhile to consider what might be learned from the Spanish Civil War. With the battle of Barcelona in 1937, the war was clearly lost, though the final treaty was only signed in 1939. How many brave anti-fascist partisans were sacrificed in the years in between?

    Pragmatic political actors hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and work for a policy somewhere in between. The best outcome is a Ukrainian victory and the worst is a Ukrainian defeat. Either way, a weakened David will still need to contend with a wounded Goliath. The most probable outcome, however, is neither an unmitigated triumph by Ukraine nor a thoroughly pyrrhic victory by Russia, but a war of attrition, some version of trench warfare, which cost the lives of countless infantrymen on both sides. Is stalemate worth the cost?

    Toward the end of the Vietnam War in 1971, testifying in front of a Senate panel, a young serviceman who later became U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, asked: “How can one ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?” Ukrainian self-defense against Russian invasion was no mistake. But there is a point when valor turns into senseless sacrifice. For the all-knowing media pundits, and those comfortably watching and Ukraine’s tragedy unfold in their living rooms, it’s easy to insist upon continuing the struggle. In the face of likely defeat or stalemate, however, is that more realistic or ethical than officially calling not merely for a ceasefire, but an end to the fighting?

    Treaties of import are made between enemies, not between friends, and cessation of hostilities will reflect the reigning imbalance of power. Ukraine will have to surrender significant territory and only the most naà ve optimist can expect Russia to rebuild its enemy, or allow the West to do so, without compensation. Negotiations on this point will prove difficult. Any new multi-national or bi-national treaty, moreover, must speak to the security concerns of both nations. It should guarantee Ukraine’s neutral and non-nuclear status and perhaps its right to join the European Union, if not NATO, in exchange for lifting the sanctions on Russia.

    Any deal for peace between Russia and Ukraine is purely speculative at this point. But what is most important needs to be kept in mind. Any meaningful treaty must prioritize humanitarian efforts to evacuate civilians, assist the wounded, collect the bodies of the dead, and search for those missing in action. Peace will probably result less in a “win-win” than a “lose-lose” situation. Under such circumstances, the prime task for the global community is not secure a Ukrainian victory, but rather avoid a result in which a brave nation is faced with ongoing losses under increasingly hopeless conditions.

    ** Stephen Eric Bronner is Co-Director of the International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue and Board of Governors Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Rutgers University. His most recent work is The Sovereign (New York: Routledge, 2020).

    “The Better Part of Valor: Peace in Ukraine” in OpEdNews (6/15/222); Una Citta #284 (May-June, 2022)

  • “Ukraine’s Labor’s Lost?”

    O , some authority how to proceed;

    Some tricks, some quillets, how to cheat the devil.

    — William Shakespeare

    Ukraine is turning into a landscape of blood-stained rubble. Thousands have been killed and wounded while possibly millions of refugees, and internally displaced people (IDPs), are on the move. $100 billion in Ukrainian infrastructure and housing has been destroyed. The environmental damage will amount to billions more, the economy is wrecked, starvation is beginning, and drinking water is depleted. Russian troops are stalled on various fronts, but they are securing Mariupol and other ports. Kyiv is the site of ongoing strife, and other cities are ready to fall. The civilian population has been valiant in resisting the invader. Perhaps they will prove successful, but the situation is increasingly dire. The bombing is unrelenting, half of Ukraine’s economy has shut down, the United Nations Development Program now suggests that 30% of its citizens need humanitarian assistance. That number is sure to grow as the war spreads from Eastern to Western Ukraine. The plight of those trapped in war zones is getting worse: Ukrainians refer to them as “the forgotten ones.”

    Negotiations remain in play even as the most hideous propaganda fuels the conflict in Ukraine and Russia. Meanwhile, the United States and NATO are reinforcing Ukraine’s resistance. US assistance alone will mount to over $1 trillion. Sanctions are also disrupting Russia’s economy. Its privileged trade status has been withdrawn, oligarchs’ assets have been seized, investments have been frozen, and Vladimir Putin has become a pariah. But there is no reason to be sanguine. The sanctions are already producing a backlash. Weaponized economic policies have led significant numbers of citizens, and even some among the protestors, to conclude that the United States and NATO are pursuing imperialist aims predicated on destroying Russia–and that their president, Vladimir Putin, is right or, at least, doing what he must. The ruble has lost half its value and it is soldiers, small businesses owners, government employees, and workers with set wages who are watching their savings melt away.

    Western leaders assume that wrecking the economy will drive the Russian population to overthrow its tyrant. But it can also intensify nationalism, xenophobia, and new imperialist ambitions. Russia has options. In light of its conflicts with the United States, China might rush to the rescue with military aid and new trade agreements whereas Iran is already preparing oil deals for Putin. Should Western competition with China intensify, and US-Iranian nuclear-treaty negotiations collapse, some new authoritarian version of the former “Axis” alliance of fascist powers will probably appear on the horizon. That Putin has become a pariah is only partially true. As for the oligarchs, indeed, Stalin was never overly concerned about the economic well-being of his subordinates–and neither is Putin.

    Will economic pressure trump political will? That is doubtful. It is also questionable whether sanctions will shorten the war. New thinking is necessary especially when serious revolutionary opposition to Putin is lacking. Demonstrations have taken place all over Russia, but the only sizeable protests were in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Quiet rules in the rest of this huge nation. Putin’s policy is driven by a desire to recover Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. Its aims are what they always were, namely, securing warm-water ports and ensuring a buffer against invasion. These reach back not just to Stalin and Lenin, but to Peter the Great.

    Strategic proposals are mostly inadequate and disingenuous. Western media commentators gravely warn that “we” cannot let Putin win and praise leader for standing up to Putin. But then they pointedly ask: have they stood up enough? What else might they try? Impose more economic sanctions? Send more jets, missiles, and drones? Perhaps implement a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine. Western leaders have mostly been prudent about that option. A no-fly zone would inevitably result in air battles between Russian and Western planes, probably a broader war, and perhaps even nuclear apocalypse. Our armchair strategists, however, have more on their mind. They facilely warn of “appeasement” and a repeat of the “Munich Crisis” of 1938. Appeasement bought the allies some time to rearm and, whatever the miscalculations, the only other option back then was for the allies to declare war. Hitler was ready–is that also the case with our brave hawks?

    All of them dance around the question of sending troops to Ukraine–and for good reason. Without even considering the likelihood of a trans-European conflagration, and possibly worse, the Western public would never stand for it–and certainly not over the long run. For all the tough talk, in fact, citizens may not even stand for the outrageous hikes in gas prices brought about by sanctions on Russian oil sales. Boosters might as well be chanting: “Let’s you and him fight!”

    Ukraine’s labor’s lost is difficult to admit. The country has already paid an enormous price, which will rise if NATO troops are sent into Ukraine, if a no-fly zone is implemented, if the fighting spills over into other countries, and–above all–if provocations bring about chemical warfare or even nuclear conflict. Everyone hopes that such predictions are mistaken. But then, politics rests on hoping for the best while seeking to prevent the worst. All wars come to an end, and that will be true of this war as well. Three likely outcomes exist. Russia might conquer Ukraine, set up a puppet regime, and perhaps target the Baltic states next. Alternately, Ukraine might repel the invader, rebuild its infrastructure and heighten security, but still remain overshadowed by Russia. Or, finally, should the war spill over into Europe, even more destructive weapons will come into play, and the continent will stand in danger of annihilation.

    Progressives must prepare for new conditions, which means thinking outside the box. In collaboration with the National Platform for Reconciliation and Unity in Ukraine, an umbrella coalition of progressive civic organizations, the International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue put forward a “Statement” with ideas for thinking about the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in a new way.

    Under any circumstances negotiations without preconditions must continue. That is particularly the case should the conflict between Russia and Ukraine produce a gruesome stalemate. Some speculative suggestions for other scenarios, however, Ukraine, however, are worth making in which civil society plays a role:

    1: If Russia is poised for victory

    • Create a provisional government-in-exile to coordinate future resistance, and provide an alternative to any puppet regime.
    • Assemble plans for reconstructing Ukraine even if stripped of its sovereignty.
    • Prepare for Ukraine’s de-militarization and neutrality.
    • Call for a summit between NATO leaders and Putin in a neutral site.

    2: Should it appear that the war will spill over into Europe:

    • Consider an airlift for humanitarian aid.
    • Develop cooperative plans for settling millions of refugees
    • Create humanitarian corridors targeting IDPs
    • Steer public opinion against any pre-emptive use of chemical or nuclear weapons in this conflict.

    3: If it appears that Ukraine will prevail:

    • n Negotiate with the EU and the United States for a new Marshall Plan
    • Draw closer ties between the government and civil society
    • Create a reconciliation commission and condemn calls for “popular justice”
    • Temper the xenophobic propaganda leveled against Russia

    *Stephen Eric Bronner is Co-Director of the International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue (www.icdd.info) and Board of Governors Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science: Rutgers University.

    “Ukraine’s Labor’s Lost?” In OpEdNews (3/20/2022)

  • Statement of the National Platform for Reconciliation and Unity in Ukraine (NPRU) 

    An Appeal from a Coalition of Ukrainian Associations 

    Events in Ukraine are unfolding rapidly and catastrophically. The National Platform for Reconciliation and Unity (NPRU) had warned about a possible war for years, which it has tried to prevent. In collaboration with The International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue (ICDD), its representatives hope to engage the current discussions in a positive fashion. 

    The NPRU is an umbrella organization of numerous organizations from Ukrainian civil society, and we respectfully ask the Presidents of the United States, Ukraine and the Russian Federation to consider our proposals and accept our help. 

    We propose

    A general negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine that will rest on four pillars and provide mutual benefits with respect to: 

    1. security
    2. regulation
    3. democracy
    4. restoration – consolidation

    An international treaty sponsored by the UN Security Council that would provide security guarantees, facilitate the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Ukraine in exchange for neutrality; remove l all restrictions on economic, political and cultural work; clarify the prospects for Ukraine’s entry into the European Union; and specify the possibilities of joint financing for the restoration of Ukraine. 

    The naming of a Special American Envoy to Ukraine 

    The initiation of a summit between the President of the United States, Joe Biden, and the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. 

    More specifically we suggest

    1. Creating an international commission to oversee Ukraine’s stabilization and reconstruction. 

    2. Settling the conflict over the Donbass according to the guidelines of the second Minsk Agreements 

    3. Signing a treaty between Ukraine and the Russian Federation “On Settlement” to replace the expired agreement “On Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership.” This would speak to military, political, economic, social, and humanitarian issues of mutual interest. 

    4. Launching an all-Ukrainian political dialogue for liberalizing social life and education with respect to history, language ,and religion. The ultimate aim of this dialogue would be to aid in the reunification of Ukraine through scientific reports, discussions among representatives of various government bodies and councils, human rights activists, and youth organizations. 

    5. Beginning a “horizontal” and ongoing dialogue between representatives of key social groups in Ukraine, the Russian Federation and Donbass – public diplomacy – between teachers, doctors, employees of communal structures, pensioners, leaders of organizations involved in the social protection of citizens in order to develop solidarity among citizens. 

    NPRU and ICDD are ready to assist in organizing negotiations, developing policies, and producing documents relevant to these undertakings. 

    All of us have the task of facing present challenges and preparing for future tasks. We hope to contribute in any way that we can 

    Ukrainian Signatories– Interparliamentary group ‘National Platform for Reconciliation and Unity of Ukraine” – Viktoria Gryb; – NGO National Platform for Reconciliation and Unity of Ukraine – Sergej Sivoho; – Think-tank “Ukrainian Institute of Politics” – Ruslan Bortnik; – Human Rights Organisation “Common Goal” – Igor Pechenkin; – Non Profit group of Organizations “Save Shirokino” – Luhansk Center for Social and Cultural development ” Big Family”. 

    Special Envoys: 

    Professor Stephen Bronner Mr. Eric Gozlan, Dr. Valery Engel : International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue 

    https://www.opednews.com/populum/page.php?f=Statement-from-the-NPRU–by-stephen-Bronner-Ukraine_Ukraine-Coup_Ukraine-Crisis_Ukraine-Phone-Call-Whistleblower-220306-537.html

  • Ukraine, Invasion, and the Future

    Bombs are falling on Kharkiv and Kyiv and Russia in what has become the largest and bloodiest conflict Europe has experienced since World War II. Roughly two thousand Ukrainians have been killed or wounded, somewhat fewer Russians, and hundreds of thousands will soon become refugees. President Vladimir Putin has surrounded Ukraine with 190,000 troops as an initial step in order to recreate Russia’s standing as a superpower and the old Soviet sphere of influence. This was not President Biden’s decision; he worked off the information given him by his staff and agencies. Everything short of sending troops is being used by the United States and its allies to halt the Russian invasion. That includes using proxies like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to ship military hardware to Kyiv, immobilizing assets, blocking imports of semi-conductors, freezing oligarchs’ bank accounts , excluding Russia from SWIFT, and halting the Nord-Stream 2 gas line to Europe. These policies are stringent and hard-hitting, though their effectiveness is not guaranteed.

    Sanctions might lose their force once Russia employs proxies to carry on its businesses. When it comes to investment and trade, there is China and perhaps Iran. National ambitions are decisive, and it would make sense for Putin to turn in their direction. Tensions along the northern border between Russia and China would undoubtedly diminish and President Xi Jinping would find an enthusiastic supporter for his anti-Western policies concerning Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the Senkaku Islands. With its huge deposits of oil and natural gas, trading with Iran would compensate for losses uncured by NATO blocking Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas line. It is apparent from the billions upon billions invested by the Chinese in Africa and the Middle East, money is no object for them.

    Among the mistakes in formulating foreign policy is an over-emphasis on “costs.” The reality is that the cash can always be found, whether by the United States or an economically impaired Russia. The reality is that few wars or invasions ever turn a profit, either for the victor or the loser. The Ukrainian War would probably not have occurred in the first place were the conflict about economic interests, which are calculable and susceptible to compromise. But that is far less the case when it comes to national pride, geopolitical ambitions, or matters of “credibility.” There is nothing to calculate in any of this, and such concerns have spurred the present crisis.

    Seeking to reassert its global standing as first among equals, which had eroded so notably during the Trump years, the United States stubbornly emphasized the right of NATO to remain open to any future applicant. How that right should have come to pass remains unclear, and Russia views it as nothing more than an ideological justification for threatening its security and colonizing its presumed sphere of influence. Russia’s actions also rested on national pride and political traditions rather than the calculable economic benefits it would derive from defeating Ukraine. That is because its basic foreign policy aims have been the same since the time of Peter the Great, namely, securing control of warm-water ports and building buffers against invasions by the West as occurred in 1812, 1914, and 1941. Russian troop movements initially reflected the old concerns with borders and ports, before encircling Ukraine, which was left to pay the price for its neighbor’s fears.

    Emphasizing such concerns, both the United States and Russia substituted a speculative possibility for an immediate reality. Ukraine originally wished only to join the European Union for its economic benefits. Any discussion about Ukraine joining NATO, according to decision-makers, was probably a decade premature. But the truth of the matter is that Ukraine’s future was a secondary concern. President Biden had already begun sending military aid so that, without using its own troops, the United States could again dominate global policy even as Russia and Ukraine were left to battle it out, Meanwhile, Russian policy from the start involved subordinating Ukrainian sovereignty to Russian ambitions. Thus, Ukraine became “collateral damage:” its sovereignty was sacrificed for the rights of NATO, and the geo-political aims of Russia, as surely as Czechoslovakian sovereignty was sacrificed in 1938 in order to achieve “peace for our time”.

    The United States and Russia might yet reach agreement on a deal that would prevent Ukraine from entering NATO while giving it full membership in the European Union. But this would mean compromising NATO’s right to expand indefinitely, Russia curtailing its national ambitions, and each side tempering its ideological claims. The West would need to recognize Russia’s legitimate security concerns, Putin would rethink plans to recreate the Soviet bloc. As for Ukraine, unconditional surrender is unacceptable. Its leaders must keep all options open. Negotiations are underway, but there is the distinct possibility that they will collapse. Arming the Ukrainian masses will spur commitment, and international solidarity, but it will also likely produce a bloodbath as the prospects for military victory remain bleak. Lacking other alternatives, Ukrainian leaders will need to organize a government in exile.

    Perhaps framing the matter in this way can prove useful for the future. Outrage passes, but geo-political aims are resilient. Sober concern over Russia’s sphere of influence is completely legitimate. But self-righteous indignation is not. The Monroe Doctrine of 1823 still enables the United States to “protect” Latin America from foreign interference and, using this justification, it has supported any number of the most brutal dictators. It is worth recalling that JFK was even ready to blow up the world over Russia’s installment of missiles in Cuba. Though world-wide protests and condemnations greeted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, things were similar in 1956 when the Soviet Union crushed the Hungarian revolt and in 1968 when its tanks rolled into Czechoslovakia and put an end to the “Prague Spring.”

    Talk came cheap, but anti-Russian policies quickly vanished. Ukraine is poised for defeat and, should that occur, the site of resistance must find a new location: Ukraine will need to exist outside its borders. Things can change, mistakes can occur, war is unpredictable. Who knows what can happen? Mass demonstrations by Russian citizens might imperil Putin’s regime. The blitzkrieg might slow to a crawl. Refugees might impact the crisis. Sanctions might have a more devastating effect than expected. Russia’s resources for continuing the invasion might dry up. Nevertheless, there is nothing certain about any of this.

    Relations between Ukraine and Russia have been historically complex. Parts of Ukraine were incorporated into the Russian Empire during the 19th century, and dreams of independence spurred resistance to the Czar. Tempted by Lenin’s support for the right of national self-determination, Ukraine joined the USSR as the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. After the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, however, Lenin changed course: the “right” of national self-determination was deemed valid only in capitalist countries. This set the stage for future tensions between the two nations. But there was also the suffering of the Ukraine under Stalin’s artificially imposed famine of 1932-1933; nearly four million people perished. Anti-Russian hatred became so intense that parts of Ukraine actually extended to the Nazis in 1941; that was before their bloody experience with anti-Slav racism turned them against the invader. After World War II, little changed: Ukraine would remain part of the Soviet Union until its implosion in 1989. With the Maidan revolts of 2014, however, the pro-Russian government of President Viktor Yanukovych was toppled and Ukraine celebrated its sovereignty. Nevertheless, the weaker nation remained in the shadow of the stronger.

    The issue is not whether Ukraine is historically part of Russia, but whether it is still considered within its sphere of influence. Its geo-political position makes Ukraine valuable for buffeting Russia’s borders and defending its access to warm-water ports. Thinking about matters this way, however, substitutes future concerns for present realities. No invasion or interference is on NATO’s agenda, though raising such speculative possibilities can ignite nationalist passions. The United States should already start thinking about Putin’s plans for Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland. The current crisis is complex and solving it will prove even more so. Experts and even the best media pundits will make mistakes. Nevertheless, the shameless hypocrisy of Republicans transcends all that.

    Initially attacking Biden for his “weakness” in “standing up” to Putin, while equally opposed to sending in troops, Trump’s partisans now claim that the invasion was Biden’s fault. It’s as if his warnings about the United States mounting a robust response was the reason for Russia’s decision to invade. But it gets worse. Republicans will undoubtedly oppose any prudent policy. They have no use for policies that might temper tensions with China or result in a new nuclear treaty and new economic relations with Iran. It is hard to believe that they will endorse any treaty with Russia that would reduce the number of nuclear weapon and reject their pre-emptive use. Republicans have also not exactly been welcoming to refugees. These reactionary politicians have nothing to contribute other than the plaintive cry: “Do something!”

    But there are no easy solutions. The practical issues facing all parties are interlaced and complex enough: how best to end to the conflict, or maintain a site of resistance, provide humanitarian aid for the Ukrainian people, deal with a looming refugee crisis, prevent any spill-over of the conflict and, finally, eliminate threats concerning the use of nuclear weapons. Only the ethical aim is clear: mitigate circumstances where, as Thucydides noted in his History of the Peloponnesian Wars, “the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must.”

    *Stephen Eric Bronner is Co-Director of the International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue and Board of Governors Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Rutgers University.

    “Ukraine, Invasion, and the Future” in OpEdNews 2/28/2022; in To the Point Analysis; in Una Citta

  • Democracy and America

    The United States is in the midst of an existential and political crisis. Understanding it calls for investigating anti-democratic choices made when the nation was in its infancy. America

    never had a great political thinker on the level of Montesquieu, Hobbes, Locke, or Hegel. In fact, its theory of governance can probably be boiled down to about 30 pages worth of newspaper articles compiled in The Federalist Papers (1788). Clear, brief, and to the point, this collection was authored by three of America’s “founding fathers:” James Madison, John Jay and Alexander Hamilton. The Federalist Papers were part of what was a raging debate over whether to ratify the new Constitution. Everyday people were able to read and discuss themand they did. Back then, indeed, political theory was political. The most famous of these “papers” — #10, #51, and #78still reverberate with all students of American politics. They speak to what is happening now.

    The founding fathers were authentic, intellectual, and political revolutionaries who turned the logic of governance upside down. No less than Machiavelli or Hobbes, admittedly, these politicians believed that men were self-interested and egoistic. Madison was clear: if men were angels there would be no need for government. But what kind of government? Europeans thought that hierarchical and centralized states were necessary to keep the masses in line. America’s founding fathers, however, viewed the matter differently. They envisioned a decentralized government with checks and balances. Combining it with explicitly anti-democratic institutions, they believed, it would produce the same result, while protecting individual liberty.

    Madison, Jay, and Hamilton were propertied bourgeois and landowners, children of the Enlightenment, and nobody’s fools. Their views on personal liberty, representative democracy, and an independent judiciary set the stage for genuine advances in democratic governance. But they were not romantic idealists. These goals were all pursued with an eye on their own interests, and within “prudent” limits. As becomes evident in the magisterial cycle of American historical novels by Gore Vidal, which begins with Burr (1973), these founding fathers, above all, feared the “great beast,” the poor and the property-less, as much as any European aristocrat. They allowed for slavery in order to gain support for the Constitution from Southern states. African and Native Americans could not vote; women could not vote; those without property could not vote; and everyone had to be 21. Individual states were left to decide the details, which later led to poll taxes, literacy tests, various obstacles in order to cast ballots, and flat-out coercion, especially in the South following the Civil War and Reconstruction, and well into the 1960s. Today, indeed, eighteen states have already passed legislation with the same intent under pressure from a resurgent white supremacist constituency, and with solid support from the Republican Party.

    Even severe voting restrictions, however, did not make elites feel secure. They wanted more protection, and they got it: governors and senators were indirectly elected by state assemblies; an electoral college was erected that would indirectly determine the president; and Supreme Court justices, nominated by the president and ratified by the Senate, would sit on the bench for life. Some changes were made: governors and senators are now elected directly by popular vote, and members of the electoral college now vote in accordance with their state’s popular vote. In spite of these changes, however, the original hindrances to democracy remain a serious matter. This became evident when unforeseen circumstances enabled President Donald Trump, supported by a Republican majority in the Senate, to confirm three highly conservative justices for the Supreme Court, who probably will pose obstacles to all progressive legislation for decades to come.

    The Federalist Papers split the exercise of national sovereignty between the congress, the judiciary, and the presidency (as well as the federal government and the states). With each institution seeking to expand its turf at the expense of the others, coupled with overly complex and confused laws, their unique domains of control are actually quite fluid. Congress is supposedly in control of the budget, for example, yet the president and the senate can both intercede. Institutional accountability also suffers, which became apparent in the embarrassing presentation of the Muller Report, which dealt with Russian interference in the 2016 elections, Trump’s two impeachment hearings, and the seemingly endless inquiry into the January 6th insurrection.

    But the most important problem involves elections. Their framework was provided by The Federalist Papers. Organized through single member districts, where the “winner takes all,” the electoral process is the real source of “American exceptionalism.” Should a candidate garner 51% of the popular vote, for example, it is then quite plausible that 49% of the district’s citizens will find themselves completely disempowered. Unlike European forms of proportional representation, where 49% of the vote won by a national party will result in 49% of the seats in parliament, the American system is black and white. The power of political parties is reducible to the number of individual candidates who emerge triumphant in each district or state. It is a matter of win or loseeverything. This electoral structure harbors disincentives for the birth of third parties for the very simple reason that they cannot grow over time, say, from 5% to 10% to 20% etc. It’s always now or never – all or nothing.

    The only way for citizens not to “waste” their votes is to choose between the “lesser of the two evils,” namely, Democrats and Republicans. In spite of the current polarized political atmosphere, the founding fathers surely intuited that single-member winner-take-all districts would also produce disincentives for ideological parties (i.e. communist, socialist, fascist) since candidates will seek support from a variety of different and often mutually exclusive interests, or what the founding fathers called “factions.” Politicians of both the Democratic and Republican parties are thus pressured by the system to “balance” the concerns of, say, unions, capital, environmentalists, and other factions, in a “pragmatic” agenda that usually lacks any ideological consistency whatsoever. These factions have different degrees of power, and it is far easier for elites to organize a faction than others, such as immigrants, whose interests remain under-represented or ignored entirely. That this impacts the character of a given coalition of factions, however, was never relevant for the founding fathers.

    Compromise of principle and interest is the aim of their electoral framework, which basically extends from the local to the highest (presidential) level. A particularly grotesque attempt to grapple with the structure of American elections was the unprincipled “triangulation” strategy of President Bill Clinton, which sought to place the Democratic Party ever so slightly to the left of Republicans on any given issue; it sounds good, but the ultimate result was a supposedly progressive president’s promising “to end welfare as we know it.” Triangulation was also undertaken by Senator Al Gore (D-Tennessee) in his unsuccessful presidential contest with Governor George W. Bush in 2000, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s run against Donald Trump in 2016. Both won the popular vote, Hillary Clinton by more than 3 million ballots, but miscalculated with regard to the impact of the electoral college. Both Al Gore and Hillary Clinton were defeated.

    Genuinely progressive reformers have always had a hard time dealing with these various electoral constraints on democracy. Aware of events in Ancient Greece, and the Roman Republic, the federalists worried about the property-less majority electing a people’s tribune and the prospect of this majority forcing taxes on the rich. They purposely made it difficult to implement national policies. There is hardly a single major piece of welfare legislation from social security to healthcare in which the United States has historically taken the lead. The introduction of such legislation usually lags 50 years behind countries with socialist parties, parliamentary regimes, and national unions. Different candidates in the United States swing a bit to the left or to the right depending upon the coalitions that they form. Even though the last 50 years has seen the ideological mainstream shifting to the right, which is barely recognized by the average voter, the standard claim is that power in America rests on what Arthur Schlesinger Jr. called “the vital center.”

    Privileging the power of local factions as against national political parties further complicates the labyrinthine structure of American institutions. Professional politicians in both the Democratic and Republican parties seek to keep these factional interests in the non-governmental realm of civil society where much of the pre-electoral bargaining takes place. But that doesn’t always work. When an ideological vacuum sucks the life out of a political party, and its identifiable policies have palpably failed, it is the more extreme factions that can become dominant. Such was the case with the racist “Dixiecrats” and white councils” in the South that had a huge impact on national parties, and their policies, during the decades after World War II. It was the same with the Tea Party, which began its assault on the vapid “center” occupied by supporters of President George W. Bush. Currently, it is the same with the neo-fascist Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, and the conspiracy fetishists of Q-Anon, whose local activities have been inspired and supported by President Trump.

    Factional minorities can rule America. That possibility favors elites, and it is strengthened by an anachronistic electoral college that essentially rejects the idea of “one person, one vote.” Other marginalized constituencies bear the costs. Expelling their egalitarian demands from the political discourse is among the most obvious ways in which inequality has been maintained. The United States still lacks an equal rights amendment for women. Institutional racism became a subject of crucial concern only in the aftermath of the protests associated with Black Lives Matter! – and it has produced a powerful backlash. Intolerance toward the LGBTQ community remains, and the plight of Native Americans is barely recognized. The source of these problems, it is worth noting, is primarily not the federal government but the states -and particularly those with non-urban, agricultural, and provincial small-town constituencies. That remains the case today.

    Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America (1835) idealized the national culture of individualism and the town meeting. His overestimated canonical work was wrong on both counts. American individualism has always been conformist, provincial, and intertwined with laissez-faire capitalist ideology, “getting the government off our backs” and fear of those who would “take away our guns.” Contemptuous of big business, and always suspicious of “socialist” and “communist” reforms, American individualism is petty bourgeois to the core. There is the insistence that one opinion is as good as another, which Herbert Marcuse correctly labeled “repressive tolerance,” and there is only contempt for any scientific “expert” or intellectual, who denies that. Indeed, the American obsession with personal liberty has never been reciprocal. It has rarely extended to the genuine non-conformist. Personal liberty has always been there for me, but not for you, and its pursuit has come at the expense of social responsibility.

    Regarding the “town meeting,” meanwhile, local cliques are usually in control, and turnout in local elections is sometimes as low as 10% of the voting public. Because the issues discussed are usually minor, such as putting up a traffic light, little publicity is generated and less oversight, which best serves the interests of highly organized and coordinated elites. Local politics thus becomes the arena in which corruption and organized extremism thrive. Populism veils reaction. Electing the president through a system that rewards less populated conservative rural states and disempowers urban constituencies, such as people of color, which usually vote Democratic. No wonder that Republicans seek to keep the vote low, and that they have been the primary beneficiaries of this situation.

    Leaving the ability to determine most electoral rules in the hands of individual states, meanwhile, has made possible new forms of suppressing the popular vote (especially among people of color and the poor). Voting rights along with domestic spending bills are stalled in the Senate due to recalcitrant Democrats. One would expect such behavior from reactionary republicans. But it is Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia, and Senator Krysten Sinema of Arizona, who are to blame. Both are from conservative states with constituencies supportive of President Trump. They are suspicious of the federal government, and they have a white majority constituency with little sympathy for non-white citizens who would benefit from such legislation.

    Is there democracy in America? The appropriate response is: compared to what? When juxtaposed against the utterly impractical vision of participatory democracy, certainly not. When measured against parliamentary regimes with proportional representation, which privilege party over faction, it’s highly questionable. When compared to existing dictatorships and “illiberal” democracies now existing in Poland or Hungary, however, there is no doubt about it.

    Today, this electoral framework is being manipulated in ways that endanger democratic governance. Between the veiled “gerrymandering,” or reorganizing of districts, and authoritarian attempts to suppress the vote, a Republican attempt to “stop the steal” of another presidential election is underway. It is possible for Democrats to overcome such obstacles, but it will take resources and determination. They will need to prioritize democratic empowerment even at the short-term expense of economic equality and, in the long run, they must work to abolish the electoral college, demand term limits for Supreme Court justices, eradicate anti-democratic bureaucratic procedures, participate at the state and local levels, reject sectarianism, and get out the vote! This will all demand the careful targeting of resources. Unless that is done, the prospects for democratic governance will grow weaker, and we may even experience yet another authoritarian minority winner in the presidential race of 2024.

    *Stephen Eric Bronner is Co-Director of the International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue and Board of Governors Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Rutgers University. His most recent book is The Sovereign (Routledge).

    “Democracy in America” in OpEdNews 1/16/2022; Translation Una Citta #280 (December 2021-January 2022) and Lettre International #136 (Spring, 2022).

  • Interview with Prof. Stephen Bronner on the impact of US elections on the Middle East

    In the absence of any crisis, Middle East politics carry a lot of weight in US presidential elections, and there is a deeper divide between Republicans and Democrats over the policies to follow in the region. Will this be the case with this year’s race for the White House?

    MEMO caught up with Professor Emeritus Stephen Bronner for a conversation about the 2020 election and its impact on the Middle East and began by asking him about Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s Middle East policy.

    The Middle East is likely to feature in the campaign because ending US involvement in regional wars has become a vote-getter; Americans are tired of war. Former President Barack Obama was the first to recognise this, which is one of the reasons why he was so reluctant to get dragged into the Syrian civil war.

    According to Bronner, unless the US is involved anywhere directly and paying a heavy cost, foreign policy is unlikely to be a major issue in the coming election compared with previous polls, not least because Covid-19 has seen people focus on economic concerns. That being said, however, “Biden does not have a great record on foreign policy, especially in the Middle East.”

    During his campaign Biden has already said that if he is elected he will maintain a small troop presence in Afghanistan and Iraq to help the fight against terrorism in the war-ravaged countries. “We will end the forever wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East,” he insists, “which have cost us untold blood and treasure.” The Pentagon revealed last week that the number of US troops in Iraq will be reduced from just over 5,000 to about 3,000 this month. Biden, it must be remembered, supported the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and the presence of US troops in Afghanistan.

    Bronner believes in the power of “the squad” — Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley and Rashida Tlaib — for shaping US Middle East policy. “Whether he brings [troops] home will depend very much on the type of pressure that is exerted on him.” These congresswomen from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party will, he feels, be able to exert great pressure upon a Biden administration about this.

    When I asked about the fate of the fragile 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Bronner said that it hinges on the result of the election in November, rather than a planned US bid to trigger a return of all UN sanctions on Tehran. Withdrawal from the deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was one aspect of what Bronner calls Donald Trump’s disastrous Iran policy. The withdrawal decision undermined America’s credibility on the international stage.

    “The reality is clear. The JCPOA is working; that is a view shared by our European allies, independent experts and the current US Secretary of Defence. If the constraints on Iran’s nuclear programme under the JCPOA are lost, we could be hastening the day when we are faced with the choice between living with that threat and going to war to prevent it.”

    Bronner added that despite Tehran’s declaration five years ago, Iran’s leadership is determined to remain committed to the nuclear deal. It is hoped that a Biden victory will salvage the pact.

    In terms of US oil policy in the Middle East, the US presidential election will determine the next four years and shape the dynamics of supply and demand domestically and abroad. This will have implications for shale operations, sanctions, trade and relations with OPEC. Bronner says that US sanctions on Iran have shaped the oil market and if they are eased, the oil market would have to absorb millions of barrels of over-production.

    Trump’s signature Middle East decisions, including moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognising Israel’s annexation of the Syrian Golan Heights, were deeply controversial and regarded as untouchable by previous administrations in Washington. Tellingly, Bronner believes that the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel was inspired by Trump’s domestic and electoral concerns.

    “Can he bring the Jewish community behind him for the next election?” asked Bronner. “My belief is that I don’t think that will work. There are too many other issues for the Jewish community ranging from health insurance for elderly Jews in Florida to the concerns of younger people with politics between Israel and Palestine. As such, 80 per cent of American Jews will vote for Biden. The new deal between Israel and the UAE will not help Trump in November, because the American people have other priorities, such as health insurance or economic concerns.”

    He noted, however, that the Israel-UAE deal is a nightmare for Iran in its efforts against Israel in the region, and will not help relations between Iran and the US.

    “The US, if it is going to rebuild its standing which has been completely shattered by Trump’s foreign policy, has to refinance organisations like the UN and seek a set of incremental improvements for Palestinians and Israelis by putting some pressure on Israel’s government.”

    Interview: “Middle East Prospects” for Podcast: MEMO (Middle East Monitor)  with Elif Selin Cialek (9/9/2020)

  • ‘Hatred and mistrust block a solution in Israel-Palestine’

    An interview with Professor Stephen Bronner, by Elif Selin Calik

    The Emeritus Professor of Political Science and a member of the Graduate Faculties of Comparative Literature and German Studies at Rutgers University in New Jersey, Stephen Eric Bronner, has spoken out on the two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and stressed his support for fostering unity between Palestinian factions. Speaking exclusively to MEMO at the Doha Forum 2019 in Qatar last week, Bronner also looked at the situation in Syria.

    “The majority of both Palestinians and Israelis would like to see two states [but] there is simply too much residual hatred and mistrust. Israelis are fearful of Hamas and its illiberal charter and Palestinians respond with condemnations of Israel’s ‘apartheid’ state and its inhumane cordon sanitaire around Gaza.” There, he pointed out, you see the problem, “regardless of who is right.”

    Bronner was critical of Israel’s Orthodox religious zealots and settlers who have made their homes in the Occupied Palestinian Territories whose ideology, he insisted, mixes “blatant racism with imperialist ambitions”. It is “preposterous” to think that at least two hundred and fifty thousand of them will leave their settlements peacefully. “Money and apartments in Israel proper will only satisfy a minority.”

    Will yet another Intifada force a one-state solution on the conflicting parties? According to Prof. Bronner, this thought is “delusional”, while underestimating the bureaucratic difficulties is a mistake. “Ignoring the economic issue in Israel and Palestine, or thinking that foreign money will save the day, is dangerous; and believing that tolerance will conquer all is naïve. What counts now, in my opinion, is negotiating to extend the civil liberties of Palestinians, lift the blockade on Gaza, foster unity between the Palestinian factions, and induce investment.”

    During our discussion, he also touched on the global upheaval against refugees and the fear of immigration. “A prominent thinker, Ulrich Beck introduced the idea of a new ‘risk society’. Polish Sociologist Zygmunt Bauman is indeed a particularly prominent thinker. But I think he borrowed ‘this idea of uncertainty’ from my late friend, Beck. The question is, of course, whether uncertainty is peculiar to our time; I have a feeling that those living in the past, constantly enmeshed in wars, fearful of the arbitrary violence of some aristocrat or other, facing diseases whose causes they did not understand, poor beyond our comprehension, were not exactly secure in their lives. To say, we are uncertain and that this makes us afraid is really nothing more than a tautology.”

    Bronner stressed that globalisation threatens traditional societies even as its economic pressures make images of the past more appealing. He explained that when Donald Trump talks about “Making America Great Again” he is talking about an America in which women were in the kitchen, gays were in the closet, and people of colour were doing menial jobs.

    “Social movements of the oppressed brought about changes, and white men especially, living in provincial circumstances while working in anachronistic jobs, have felt their privileges and ‘way of life’ threatened. In my book The Bigot I maintained that prejudice always occurs in ‘clusters’. Roughly the same groups and strata, agricultural and traditional rather than urban and cosmopolitan, that fear diversity and multiculturalism also fear immigration.”

    When I asked about the future of Syria, Bronner noted that there are too many unknown factors. These include the unpredictability of American foreign policy; future Turkish-Kurdish issues; whether a resurgence of Daesh will take place in Iraq; whether Israel or the United States or the Saudis will attack Iran; and what will result from future conflicts of interest between Assad’s regime and those of its current benefactors, Russia and Iran.

    “There are some important questions that we should ask. Will Iran or Israel become the dominant power in the region? What of the Sunni-Shia divide and the future of political Islam?”

    He stressed that Syria is like other states in the region insofar as it is too weak to prevent external forces from threatening its sovereignty but too strong to lose its sovereignty altogether. “This suggests that proxy conflicts will continue and that the future of Syria will not be determined by Syrians alone. Most likely there will be shifting spheres of influence undertaken by proxies in coordination with their clients.” If there is a resurgence of Daesh, renewed violence will “undoubtedly” occur.

    “More important than all of this, however, is whether a concerted humanitarian effort can help the refugees driven from their homes, the disrupted families, the wounded, the unemployed, the children without schools,” Prof. Bonner concluded. “Syria is experiencing the fruits of a useless civil war that has destroyed its economic infrastructure, mutilated its environment, unleashed disease and plunged its people into poverty and misery. This is what we should be thinking about rather than what power controls which zone in a fragmented nation.”

    Interview: “Hatred and mistrust block a solution in Israel-Palestine” with Elif Selin Calik in Middle East Monitor (December 24, 2019); Reprinted in To the Point Analyses (January 15, 2020)